Key recommendations 

• With the US signalling a retreat from its traditional leadership role, Europe must prepare for scenarios where the Atlantic Alliance becomes fragmented, politically paralysed, or unable to respond effectively to crises on the continent’s eastern or southern flanks; 

• EU must stand firmly with any Member State facing pressure or intimidation from a global power, as seen in the increasing economic and military interest shown by the United States in Greenland. Such actions raise serious concerns for Denmark’s sovereignty and must be met with clear support from the EU for the territorial integrity and political autonomy of its members; 

• In this changing geostrategic environment, the EU must urgently pivot towards developing a credible and autonomous defence posture. This does not mean replacing NATO but rather reinforcing it through a robust European pillar — one that can operate both within the Alliance and independently when necessary; 

• While pursuing greater strategic autonomy, the EU must also remain committed to engaging the US as a vital ally. Even amid disagreements and uncertainty, maintaining a constructive transatlantic dialogue is essential for managing global challenges and preserving the broader security architecture that has underpinned European stability for decades; 

• Strengthening this transatlantic dialogue must go hand in hand with building greater self-reliance within Europe. To build such capacity, the EU must better integrate and streamline its existing defence architecture. While mechanisms like the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), the European Defence Agency (EDA), and the European Defence Fund (EDF) already exist, they often overlap or operate in silos; 

• While funding for defence is understandably a major priority, funding should not be diverted from other EU priorities including cohesion funds. Defence is more than just weapons and budgets; it is also about societal resilience and civilian readiness. Europe must frame this integration effort not only as a response to security concerns but as a hopeful project aimed at building a stronger, more sovereign, and more democratic Union; 

• Additionally, the Union must expose and counter disinformation campaigns designed to divide its Member States, employing strategic communication to raise awareness and implementing stronger cybersecurity measures across the Union to protect electoral processes. Further, the EU should invest in strengthening civil society organisations, as they are pivotal in resisting attempts to destabilise democratic institutions; 

• Europe stands at a pivotal moment. Whether in defence, trade, diplomacy, or internal cohesion, the task ahead is not only to respond to crises, but to shape a future where Europe leads with strength, values, and vision. 

Introduction 

The return of Donald Trump to the White House in January 2025 has once again sent shockwaves through the transatlantic alliance, forcing European policymakers to confront fundamental questions about the future of EU-US relations, the reliability of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), and the strategic autonomy of the European Union (EU).  

In the first months of his second presidency, President Trump has signalled a sharp departure from previous norms: halting US military and financial support to Ukraine, questioning the relevance of NATO’s Article 5, and pursuing a more transactional, bilateral approach to international diplomacy. This shift not only weakens Europe’s security umbrella, but also opens space for authoritarian powers such as Russia and China to press their advantage while further fragmenting the rules-based international order.  

Yet the implications of this new era extend far beyond defence and security. From rising economic protectionism and escalating trade tensions to the weakening of multilateral institutions and the erosion of international legal norms, the EU is facing a more complex and contested global environment. These developments call for urgent reflection not only on Europe’s security posture, but also on its economic resilience, global competitiveness, and ability to lead as a normative and diplomatic power. 

Faced with the prospect of a more isolationist and unpredictable United States, the EU must grapple with difficult truths about its dependence on US power and the fragility of its current security architecture. As discussions intensify around common defence initiatives, strategic investment, and global positioning, the Trump administration’s posture serves as a stark reminder: Europe can no longer afford to outsource its security — it must act decisively to secure it. 

  

Reimagining Europe’s Security Architecture 

The re-election of President Trump has raised profound concerns about the reliability of the United States as Europe’s primary security guarantor. His transactional approach to alliances, scepticism towards NATO’s Article 5, and the decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine have reignited feelings of vulnerability across Europe. While NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and other key allies have attempted to reassure the public that US commitment remains steadfast, many Europeans are increasingly unconvinced. This is not just rhetoric — polling by Institute Elabe shows that nearly three-quarters of French citizens no longer view the US as a dependable ally. The concern is no longer theoretical; with the US signalling a retreat from its traditional leadership role, Europe must prepare for scenarios where the Atlantic Alliance becomes fragmented, politically paralysed, or unable to respond effectively to crises on the continent’s eastern or southern flanks. Moreover, the EU must stand firmly with any Member State facing pressure or intimidation from a global power, as seen in the increasing economic and military interest shown by the United States in Greenland. Such actions raise serious concerns for Denmark’s sovereignty and must be met with clear support from the EU for the territorial integrity and political autonomy of its members. 

In this changing geostrategic environment, the EU must urgently pivot towards developing a credible and autonomous defence posture. This does not mean replacing NATO but rather reinforcing it through a robust European pillar — one that can operate both within the Alliance and independently when necessary. As part of this, the EU must decisively shift its spending patterns on security, as demonstrated in Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s ReArm Europe Plan, which aims to mobilise €800 billion for defence spending. The new joint EU borrowing fund of €150 billion will be instrumental in providing governments with the means to enhance European air and missile defence, artillery systems, missiles, ammunition, and drones. Crucially, while pursuing greater strategic autonomy, the EU must also remain committed to engaging the US as a vital ally. Even amid disagreements and uncertainty, maintaining a constructive transatlantic dialogue is essential for managing global challenges and preserving the broader security architecture that has underpinned European stability for decades. 

Strengthening this transatlantic dialogue must go hand in hand with building greater self-reliance within Europe. To build such capacity, the EU must better integrate and streamline its existing defence architecture. While mechanisms like the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), the European Defence Agency (EDA), and the European Defence Fund (EDF) already exist, they often overlap or operate in silos. The greatest challenge for the EU is to ensure interoperability across these structures, particularly in light of the US’s retrenchment from its previous global leadership role. With focused funding reform, the EU can integrate these various mechanisms into a unified strategy for funding, operational capacity, and decision-making, thus filling the gap left by the shifting priorities of US foreign policy under the new administration.  

A critical component of this strategy should be the creation of a European Defence Union (EDU) that brings together a coalition of willing states, including EU members and strategic partners like the UK and Norway as well as potential candidates. Such an approach could deepen integration without the need for unanimity, allowing for faster decision-making and avoiding paralysis. The EU must move decisively to streamline its security and defence policies, including expanding PESCO, increasing the EDF, and enhancing the European Peace Facility (EPF) to provide independent support for partners.  Additionally, exploring qualified majority voting (QMV) in certain areas, such as military procurement or joint deployments, could expedite decision-making. Establishing a permanent EU military headquarters for crisis management and strategic planning is also crucial. However, to fully unlock the EU’s potential as a credible security actor, incremental reforms will not suffice. Treaty change is inevitable. Enhancing the Union’s capacity to act in defence and security will require revisions to existing provisions — particularly to enable more flexible decision-making, institutional integration, and democratic oversight. These changes are essential to embed strategic planning and operational coordination within a legal and institutional framework that reflects the evolving security realities of the Union. 

However, while funding for defence is understandably a major priority, funding should not be diverted from other EU priorities including cohesion funds. Defence is more than just weapons and budgets; it is also about societal resilience and civilian readiness. Europe must frame this integration effort not only as a response to security concerns but as a hopeful project aimed at building a stronger, more sovereign, and more democratic Union. As highlighted in the recent Niinistö report on preparedness, placing civilians at the core of this effort — by investing in public awareness, education, and voluntary participation — is essential to building a society-wide culture of security and preparedness. Similarly, ensuring the delivery of social protection for EU citizens is equally paramount to strengthen social cohesion and equality which are important foundations for a resilient and secure EU. This effort must be underpinned by democratic accountability and public engagement. The legitimacy of this transformation rests on citizens’ pride in European values — freedom, the rule of law, and multilateralism — not solely on their anxieties over geopolitical threats. Strengthening the EU’s role in peacekeeping, democracy building, and the promotion of the rule of law abroad must remain central to its strategic identity, ensuring that Europe’s security and defence efforts contribute to a more just and stable world. 

  

Europe’s Responsibility in Defending Ukrainian Sovereignty 

Nowhere is Europe’s leadership more urgently required than in Ukraine. The prospect of a US-imposed ceasefire in Ukraine, driven more by US domestic political expediency than by the realities on the ground, represents one of the most serious emerging threats to European security. Such a ceasefire — if negotiated on Russia’s terms and without meaningful European input — risks freezing the conflict in place, legitimising Moscow’s illegal occupation of Ukrainian territory and ensuring impunity for its crimes and sending a disastrous signal to aggressors and aspiring autocrats worldwide. 

For Ukraine, this would be a devastating betrayal. A ceasefire absent robust security guarantees and Ukrainian agreement would fracture its sovereignty, demoralise its population, and leave it vulnerable to renewed Russian offensives. It would entrench Russian control over illegally occupied territories and expose Ukraine’s western regions to long-term instability. Europe must not be complicit in a “peace” that rewards the aggressor and punishes the victim. The Minsk Agreements of 2014 and 2015 already proved that shallow diplomatic solutions — unbacked by enforcement mechanisms — only enable further Russian aggression. 

For Europe, the consequences are equally grave. A ceasefire imposed by Washington without European consultation or presence would erode the credibility of the EU as a strategic actor and leave a vacuum in European leadership. It would weaken NATO’s deterrence posture, particularly among frontline states like Poland and the Baltic countries, who would rightly question the Alliance’s reliability. Worse still, it would embolden Russia to test Western resolve elsewhere and potentially ignite a new wave of grey-zone conflicts across Eastern Europe. Putin would gain a psychological and geopolitical victory, confirming his long-standing narrative of Western disunity and democratic weakness. 

If the US chooses retrenchment, Europe must not follow it into resignation. The priority must remain the defence of Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. If Washington refuses to deploy peacekeeping or security forces to uphold a ceasefire, the responsibility will fall to the EU. The EU must prepare to lead or co-lead a multinational peacekeeping mission, under UN or OSCE auspices, with participation from partners such as the UK, Norway, and Canada. EU Member States must also dramatically increase their military assistance, not only to sustain Ukraine’s defence, but to ensure that any ceasefire — if agreed — is enforceable and credible.  

In the long term, Europe must commit to Ukraine’s full sovereignty and democratic resilience by championing institutional reforms, supporting economic recovery, and advancing Ukraine’s EU accession path. 

  

Strategic Readiness and Economic Resilience 

At the same time, Europe must take proactive steps to reinforce its own readiness. This includes expanding PESCO, deepening the CSDP, and accelerating the creation of an EU rapid reaction force. Military support to Ukraine must be paired with long-term training programs, security guarantees, and high-tech investment in reconstruction. Broader resilience — such as energy independence, cyber defence, and resistance to disinformation — must also be scaled across the Union. Europe’s eastern flank should be fortified, NATO-EU coordination enhanced, and France’s nuclear deterrent integrated into the EU’s broader strategic calculus. Where necessary, new treaty mechanisms should allow coalitions of the willing to act swiftly without being hamstrung by unanimity. 

In parallel, the EU must navigate the economic uncertainties posed by US trade tariffs. A balanced, united and strategic response is required: avoiding premature escalation while preparing proportionate countermeasures. Strengthening internal resilience, supporting impacted sectors, and defending fair trade through institutions like the World Trade Organisation (WTO) should be priorities. Crucially, this moment must accelerate the EU’s efforts to diversify trade relationships — building ties with partners like Canada, Japan, India, Mercosur countries, and ASEAN. Deeper intra-European trade by pursuing further Single Market integration and enhanced economic cooperation with countries in the European Political Community, including the UK, Norway, and Switzerland, will also reinforce regional stability.  As it pursues new trade agreements, the EU must remain steadfast in its commitment to human rights, sustainability, and the rule of law. 

  

Reimagining Europe’s Role in a Changing World 

Finally, in an era of eroding global norms and the dismantling of international law, the EU must assume the mantle of principled global leadership. This means reinforcing multilateral institutions such as the UN, WTO, and the International Criminal Court (ICC) many of which are currently under attack, and forging strong coalitions with like-minded partners like Canada, Japan, and Australia. The EU should also seek strategic engagement with Global South countries, including India, Brazil, and China, while promoting reforms that allow it to speak with one voice on global platforms. To be effective, the EU must apply international law consistently — condemning violations regardless of the perpetrator — to restore its credibility and moral authority, particularly in the eyes of the Global South. 

This includes assuming a more active and principled role in addressing the conflict in Gaza. As violence continues and the humanitarian situation deteriorates, the EU must act firmly in defence of international law, human rights, and humanitarian principles. The EU must take concrete steps towards an immediate ceasefire, release of all hostages, full humanitarian assistance for the Palestinians caught in the conflict and renewed international efforts toward a just and lasting two-state solution, in line with UN resolutions. Upholding the rights and security of both Palestinians and Israelis must be at the core of a truly balanced and credible European approach. 

Advancing strategic autonomy in foreign policy and leading efforts to uphold international law is not only a geopolitical necessity but also a reaffirmation of the EU’s identity as a soft and normative power, rooted in the UN Charter and the rule of law. To credibly assert this role on the international stage, the EU must also defend its fundamental values at home — including by ensuring it pursues value-based policymaking, taking firm action against violations of democracy, the rule of law, and fundamental rights within its own Member States. 

To ensure impact in foreign policy and defence, it is critical to break the gridlock of unanimity voting, potentially reforming decision-making processes — ultimately through treaty change — to enable more effective action, particularly in areas of security and foreign policy affairs. Strengthening cooperation among Member States in security, defence, and economic resilience is vital, as is the promotion of multilateral partnerships that align with EU values, including with countries in Asia, Africa, MENA and Latin America. A unified and proactive response, both within the Union and externally, is essential to prevent external forces from exploiting internal divisions and to maintain the integrity of the EU as a whole. 

To safeguard the cohesion and resilience of the EU in the face of foreign interference — particularly efforts by external actors, including the United States, to fragment the Union — it is essential that the EU not only enhance internal unity but also promote proactive, collective action among Member States. First and foremost, the EU must strengthen the democratic process by fostering a sense of ownership and involvement among European citizens and ensuring citizens’ voices are reflected in policy-making. This can be achieved through strengthened participatory democracy across the EU, consistently reasserting EU values not only in policy but also in practice and robust campaigns that highlight the benefits of the Union and its shared future, particularly focusing on younger generations who are crucial to the EU’s long-term stability. Additionally, the Union must expose and counter disinformation campaigns designed to divide its Member States, employing strategic communication to raise awareness and implementing stronger cybersecurity measures across the Union to protect electoral processes. Further, the EU should invest in strengthening civil society organisations, as they are pivotal in resisting attempts to destabilise democratic institutions.  

Europe stands at a pivotal moment. Whether in defence, trade, diplomacy, or internal cohesion, the task ahead is not only to respond to crises, but to shape a future where Europe leads with strength, values, and vision. 

  

Conclusion 

As the US under President Trump signals a shift towards unilateralism, transactionalism and retrenchment, the European Union must come to terms with a possible new geopolitical reality: a scenario where the transatlantic partnership could no longer be taken for granted. While the EU should continue to engage the US a vital ally, it must also prepare for scenarios where American support is conditional, inconsistent, or absent altogether. This calls for a strategic awakening in Europe — one that strengthens its capacity to defend its values, protect its interests, and lead on the global stage. From defending Ukraine and securing its eastern flank, to building economic resilience and deepening democratic unity, the EU must chart a course that is both autonomous and principled. The Trump era is a stress test for the transatlantic alliance — but it is also an opportunity for Europe to emerge as a more sovereign and credible actor in a rapidly changing world.