This week marks 1000 days since Russia launched its full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, an unprovoked and brutal attack on the sovereignty of a European nation. Ukraine has shown extraordinary resilience, withstanding devastating attacks on its infrastructure, economy, and people. Yet, war persists, and its consequences ripple far beyond Ukraine’s borders, challenging the very foundation of European peace and security.

In her Political Guidelines for the Next European Commission, presented on 18 July 2024, President-elect Ursula von der Leyen identified security and defence as both a priority and key sectors for completing the single market. Central to this vision is the establishment of a European Defence Union (EDU), which aims to enhance Europe’s collective security and strategic autonomy.

A key priority will be sustaining financial, political, and military support for Ukraine, recognising that investing in Ukraine’s security is the best investment in Europe’s own stability. This vision aligns closely with the findings of the Niinistö Report, unveiled on 30 October 2024, which underscores the need for a comprehensive approach to preparedness, emphasising the integration of civilian and military capabilities to address interconnected threats. This commitment involves leveraging tools such as the European Peace Facility (EPF) to address immediate needs while laying the groundwork for future reconstruction through the Ukraine Facility.

At the same time, von der Leyen’s guidelines highlight Europe’s chronic underinvestment in defence and the inefficiencies caused by fragmented spending. From 1999 to 2021, EU defence spending increased by just 20%. Whereas that can be seen as substantial, it pales in comparison to Russia’s military spending, which grew by nearly 300%, and China’s, which grew by 600%. The fact that increases in Member State spending is disjointed, and often overlapping, compromises the effectiveness of such spending increases further. Addressing these disparities is essential to strengthening Europe’s strategic resilience, as also echoed in the Niinistö Report’s call for proactive investment in both civilian resilience and military readiness.

The global political landscape is also shifting in ways that demand urgent attention. Donald Trump’s recent election as president of the United States raises significant questions about the continuity of the US’s transatlantic security commitments. With his previous presidency marked by ambivalence toward NATO and calls for reduced US involvement in European defence, Europe must prepare for potential shifts in American foreign policy.

The 1000-day milestone of the war in Ukraine serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of peace and the imperative for European support. Building a united, robust front capable of responding to both immediate threats and long-term challenges is not only an obligation to Ukraine but also a necessity for safeguarding Europe’s future.

 Key Texts 

• European Parliament: White paper on the future of European defence
• European Commission: Political Guidelines for the Next European Commission 2024-2029
• European Commission: Niinistö Report

Upcoming Events 

• 25-28 November: European Parliament’s plenary session
• 19-20 December: European Council

 European Movement International’s Position 

The prioritisation of the European Defence Union (EDU) in the next five years of the European Commission is very welcome. It recognises its critical role in safeguarding Europe’s security amidst a volatile global landscape. As we argue in our latest policy position on Strengthening Security and Defence at a Time of Geopolitical Instability, the war in Ukraine underscores the urgency of enhanced European defence, as the EU’s unwavering support for Ukraine must remain a bold and resolute demonstration of its commitment to democracy, sovereignty, and the safety of Europe. In this defining moment, we call for the establishment of the EDU as the EU’s key tool for strategic resilience and collective defence capabilities.

One of the EDU’s key objectives should be to reduce reliance on external actors through joint procurement and collaborative defence initiatives. This approach would enable Member States to pool resources, streamline costs, and access cutting-edge technologies, ensuring Europe can independently safeguard its security while enhancing interoperability in joint operations.

Additionally, in our policy position on A Resilient Europe: Enhancing EU Enlargement for a Stronger and Safer Union, we argue that the ongoing war in Ukraine has highlighted the inseparable link between EU enlargement and security, reinforcing the urgency to integrate new members. We advocate for EU enlargement as a strategic investment in the peace, stability, and prosperity of the European continent. In the context of Ukraine’s fight to defend its sovereignty, expanding the EU to include countries in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans would not only bolster regional security but also act as a safeguard against external influences, particularly from Russia and China.

Enlargement is not just a vision for the future — it is a necessity for Europe’s collective security and prosperity. Integrating Ukraine into the EU would send a powerful message of commitment to those on the frontlines of defending European values, while ensuring the Union remains resilient in the face of external threats.